Colts at Midseason: Broken but Playoff Bound

Despite being the owners of a sub .500 record, the Indianapolis Colts are still leading the AFC South. At 4-5, the Colts lead the division and currently hold tie breakers over the other three teams.

But for the foreseeable future, the Colts will have to forge ahead without Andrew Luck under center as he recovers from yet another injury. Luckily for the Colts they are the only team in the NFL with a winning record while playing a backup quarterback. Matt Hasselbeck could be the starter for up to six games as Luck sits out with a lacerated kidney.

Thankfully, the Colts schedule eases up considerably going forward but they will face four of their final seven games on the road. Three of those games are against AFC South opponents, with two at home. The schedule makes an 8-8 record entirely possible, but still difficult with Hasselbeck at the helm.

State of the Offense

What was once thought to be an unstoppable force has been a model of inconsistency, at times looking dominant and others a turnover machine. Most of the problems start with Luck’s regression this season but can also be traced to a slow start against two very talented defenses.

We saw a very strong offense in the preseason and training camp, but it hasn’t translated to the regular season. The way this unit was playing in preseason would have had the Colts with the second best scoring offense in the NFL.

The failures of the first two games can be traced to self-inflicted wounds even before the games started. Forcing Lance Louis and Todd Herremans into the starting lineup in addition to moving Jack Mewhort to right tackle was a disaster. It led to Luck taking more hits, rushing his passes, and drive killing penalties. Why the Colts (or likely Ryan Grigson) ever thought this lineup would work is beyond me. This unit wasn’t great in camp nor were they very good in the preseason.

Since making changes the to protection, the Colts have essentially had an average offensive line and are actually eighth in the NFL in adjusted sack ratings. That hasn’t helped Luck, who continued to take big shots and stare down receivers until the meeting with the Broncos.

With a bad shoulder, possible cracked ribs, and now the kidney and abdominal injuries it seems fairly clear the Luck has been knocked off his game. The problem is that this team will only go as far as his play lets them. He could easily get hot and carry the Colts like he has in the past. The offense certainly has the talent to take apart any defense in the NFL, but it will all depend on Luck and how he bounces back from this latest injury.

State of the Defense

Regardless of what some might say, the Colts defense has kept them in every single game this season. They have been put in no-win situations all season as the team has given up 69 points off turnovers. The Colts have decidedly lost the field position battle this season.

The biggest issue for the Colts has been the lack of a pass rush. At this point, it is basically Robert Mathis or bust. Jonathan Newsome, last year’s sack leader, has just one sack and seems to have regressed from 2014. The free agent signing of Trent Cole hasn’t panned out as he’s still looking for his first sack this season (and has just nine tackles).

As has been the issue for the past three years, the Colts still have issues covering tight ends and players out of the backfield. This is mainly due to bad roster building and having too many linebackers who are bad in coverage. That isn’t going to change anytime soon.

The defense will also be hampered by the loss of Henry Anderson, who has been a force on the defensive line. Anderson was helping to anchor an improved run defense and ranked 19th in the NFL among interior defenders.

The script has been the same all season long for the Colts. The offense puts the defense in a bad position (usually via a turnover) and it leads to an early hole. By the time the offense manages to play well, it is too late and defense breaks down (usually because they’ve been on the field too long) and the Colts end up with another loss.

State of Special Teams

This is easily the best overall unit for the Colts. It wouldn’t be a stretch to say that Pat McAfee has been the team MVP at this point in the season as he’s done his part to win the field position battle. The Colts still don’t have much of a return game, but it hasn’t been a deciding factor this season.

Adam Vinatieri, on the other hand, doesn’t appear to have aged in the slightest. He’s connected on 11-of-13 attempts including hitting 3-of-4 from 50-plus yards out.

Just when it appeared that the Colts were finally pulling together, they have to deal without Luck for some time. They’re still in the driver’s seat in the AFC South, but bouncing between QBs is not sustainable for a long stretch. Hopefully Luck will come back healthy sooner than later and with a refocused effort to carry the team on a playoff run.