Colts vs Jaguars: What to Watch For

Is Andrew Luck healthy?

That is the biggest question for Sunday’s game and right now, it doesn’t look too good. The Colts face the Jaguars, a team they have manhandled for the past three season but it likely won’t matter much if the home team’s franchise quarterback can’t throw the football.

Luck has been limited in practice for the past two days with an injury to his right (throwing) shoulder. The injury happened at some time during the Titans game and is apparently serious enough for the Colts to limit Luck’s activity and sign another QB to the active roster in Josh Johnson. Luck wasn’t even on the field during the open portions of practice.

This raises the level of concern as the slow start to the season has left the Colts desperately needing to clean up against the AFC South. Losing this week wouldn’t end the season, but it would be a tough loss to come back from (especially on a short week with a trip to Houston next Thursday).

Coach Chuck Pagano said earlier this week that he has “supreme confidence” that Luck will play, but it certainly doesn’t feel that way. He has been officially listed as Questionable for Sunday’s game.

Here’s what fans should be on the lookout for:

• Quarterback. Obviously the Colts need Luck to be on the field. Even with Luck, the Colts offense has been fairly awful. They rank in the bottom third of efficiency in the league and have struggled to put up points. I can’t imagine those numbers going anywhere but down with Matt Hasselbeck taking over the reigns. There is a good chance that Hasselbeck gets hurt behind this offensive line since he isn’t anywhere near as mobile as Luck. With Hasselbeck under center this team isn’t doomed, but it becomes much more of a coin flip on who will win.
  • Not to get off track, but Luck suffering an injury was only a matter of time. This represents a failure by GM Ryan Grigson as his number one responsibility is to protect the franchise QB. It isn’t that Grigson hasn’t tried to protect him better, but rather that nearly every move has failed for one reason or another (injuries or bad talent evaluation).
• Run Heavy. Regardless of whether or not Luck plays on Sunday, I expect the Colts to run the ball often. Frank Gore had a great game against the Titans and the Jags defense is significantly worse. They rank 29th in overall efficiency and are 21st against the run. I expect a lot of carries for Gore this week and for the Colts to utilize a fair amount of short passes (especially if Luck doesn’t play).
• Third Down. The Jags rank 28th in the NFL in third down defense with opponents converting over half the time. That won’t matter if the Colts continue to hold along the line and end up in a lot of third-and-longs, but this is still a clear advantage for the Colts.
• The Future? Blake Bortles was supposed to be the franchise QB for the Jaguars, but he has yet to show that level of ability. He is playing on a young offense with spotty protection (and last season dealt with a ton of injuries) but also had a “dead arm” by the last few games of the season. He is currently 21st in efficiency in the NFL (ahead of Luck right now, but still). He’s completing under 54 percent of his passes and had five touchdowns to three interceptions. Bortles is better than the past few quarterbacks the Jags have had, but that isn’t saying much. Many have already written Bortles off but this season will tell us if he can really be a viable QB in the NFL.

Despite all of this, the game will more than likely come down whether or not Andrew Luck suits up for the Colts. Some have suggested that the Colts could just rest Luck and skate past the Jags no problem, but that isn’t true. The margin of victory in the NFL is incredibly thin. This isn’t the NBA where you can give a star the night off and it will be fine, every game matters in the NFL and that is especially true for a team like the Colts with such lofty expectations.

Yes, the team will be on a short Week 5, but you can’t look ahead and decide when to give a player a break. That sort of thinking will all but ensure a loss.

Pagano has confidence that Luck will play this Sunday, but not throwing this week is definitely cause for concern. It is impossible to pick a winner without knowing the status of the starting QB, but the Colts are still favored being the home team (albeit by a smaller margin)