Colts NFL Draft: First Round Scenarios

Tonight we will hear “with the 29^th pick in the first round of the 2015 NFL Draft the Indianapolis Colts select…” or will we? What are the possibilities Indianapolis trades up to land a top-15 pick? Will Colts GM Ryan Grigson trade down into the early second round and add additional picks in the early rounds to bolster their defense?

All of the previously mentioned scenarios are likely. That is what makes the draft so special. Anything can happen at any time. There are literally hundreds of mock drafts online for anyone to find and the only thing that can be actually be agreed on at this point is that Jameis Winston is going to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at #1.

The problem with actually mocking the NFL Draft is that it is impossible to know what the selection order will be before the Colts actually get to their pick. There are a few rumors which can impact who the Colts have available to select at #29. There is also the factor that a majority of these pre-draft trade rumors are only smoke-and-mirrors in an attempt to capitalize on the first GM to get nervous. Essentially, the NFL Draft is like a high-noon showdown in the Old West, whoever, blinks first loses and to the victor goes the spoils.

Rumors are Flying… Or are They?

The Browns are rumored to have offered their two first-round picks (12^th & 19^th) to the Tennessee Titans to acquire the #2 pick from the Tennessee Titans to select Marcus Mariota. Now let’s play out the that hypothetical scenario. Tennessee, is an AFC South rival, moves down the draft board with similar defensive needs as the Colts but now would have two additional bodies to select, thus depleting the defensive talent pool available for Grigson’s pick at #29. Now, I’m not saying that the trade is a done dear, nor do I expect it will happen, but this is only one of the many potential scenarios that can occur in the draft that can impact the Colts on Day 1.

According to Stephen Holder of the Indianapolis Star, Jim Irsay told Grigson “You don’t dictate to the draft, the draft dictates to you.”

In order to filter through the smoke screens and abject chaos that is the NFL Draft, the Colts will have to draft the best available to them on their board instead of just specific need as reported by Steve Andress of Colts.com. “I just don’t understand that type of thinking when you put so much time and effort and miles in the air, by ship and by car, it doesn’t make any sense to not stick to your board.”

There are indicators that can point us in the right direction of who might be there at the 29^th pick. These factors were highlighted in Grigson’s previously mentioned press conference

Pagano and Grigson agree that the Colts need playmakers.

Grigson does not want red-flags in the early rounds (sorry Randy Gregory and Shane Ray.)

The Colts are looking going to be patient.

Grigson prefers best available over need unless its a tie.

There are four glaring needs that the Colts need more than depth to catapauly the franchise over the New England Patriots and secure a Super Bowl bid in 2015. Three of the four are defensive positions and this time around Grigson might want to focus on the defense with his first choice.

However, if the player is best person available we cannot exclude the potential marriage of both need and highest rated player at the 29^th pick. The following positions and players are listed based on the Colts’ need, scheme fit and the potential impact they might provide.

Inside Linebacker:

For three years the team mantra has simply been “Run the Ball, Stop the Run.” Sadly, this philosophy has not panned out as previously expected. Indianapolis was throttled by the New England Patriots’ rushing attack not once, but twice last season.

Lets not forget that the inability of any linebacker effectively cover the likes of TE’s Julius Thomas and Rob Gronkowski. The Colts have two needs here really but only one can be chosen. D’Qwell Jackson is on the wrong side of 30 and Jerrell Freeman is a better pass defender and than he is a run-stopper. In essence there are two needs at the position that may not be addressed by just one player.

The Colts need a tougher presence in the middle to stop the run and still need a coverage linebacker to cover the middle of the field. In the first round there are only two linebackers who fit either mold and considered best available at the end of the 1st round:

Oct 18, 2014; Berkeley, CA, USA; UCLA Bruins linebacker Eric Kendricks (6) pursues the ball against the California Golden Bears in the fourth quarter at Memorial Stadium. The Bruins defeated the Golden Bears 36-34. Mandatory Credit: Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports

Eric Kendricks LB – UCLA
Stephone Anthony LB – Clemson

Safety:

I believe the Colts will withhold from selecting OL on Day 1. Instead believe the colts will address a position of greater need (albeit only slightly greater). Looking at the current roster Safety has some glaring issues. Mike Adams is 34, recent FA signing Dwight Lowery has an injury/concussion history and behind the two predicted starters are Colt Anderson, Winston Guy and Dewey McDonald. There are are currently only two safeties who have first round grades and one hybrid player who might slide into availability when the Colts are on the clock:

Damarious Randall FS/SS – Arizona State
Landon Collins FS/SS – Alabama
Shaq Thompson SS – Washington

Offensive Tackle:

Lets look at who might be available at #29. Many draft experts have the colts pegged to select an offensive lineman. This is simply because the interior of the Colts line leaked like a sieve in 2014 and also is related to the injury-related questions surrounding the status of current starter Gosder Cherilus. If the best player available is an offensive lineman, and not factoring any potential huge draft day slide by any top 15 player, there are some names that are worth a look at #29:

Cedric Ogbuehi OT – Texas A&M
TJ Clemmings OT – Pittsburgh
Ereck Flowers OT – Miami

Defensive Tackle:

I see a need to shore up the interior of the defensive line with a player who can fulfill the same role Haloti Ngata did under Pagano’s tenure in Baltimore. This is a true scheme-fit issue because not all defensive linemen are the same. The Colts need a 5T/NT who can take on double teams and open up the lanes for the inside linebackers to stop the run. Additionally, the Colts need a Nose Tackle who can create interior pass rush and help collapse the pocket on passing downs. Indianapolis has already been linked to a few of these names at the end of Day 1:

Malcom Brown DT – Texas
Jordan Phillips DT – Oklahoma
Eddie Goldman – Florida State

The Big Question:

Potentially, none of these players are available and Ryan Grigson must choose whether to trade up and land reach for value or to trade down and stack the chips. Personally, I say trade down. Let one of the several teams interested in Dorial Green-Beckham trade up for a 2^nd and 3^rd round pick if its a mid-round selection. Even a low 2^nd rounder and a 4^th rounder would suffice.

This would allow Grigson to accumulate an extra pick to consolidate the defense and address their needs with a better talent pool from the top 150. Both Offensive and Defensive Line are deep position groups with serviceable talent in the middle rounds. Inside Linebacker and Safety need a future starter if not an immediate one. The question is who shall it be? Who would you choose if you were Grigson?

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