Intel Report: Jacksonville Jaguars vs Indianapolis Colts

The Indianapolis Colts host the Jacksonville Jaguars hoping to rebound from last week’s embarrassing loss. The Jaguars haven’t beaten the Colts since 2012, but managed to do it in Lucas Oil Stadium.

The last time these two teams met, the Colts beat them so badly the Jags had to change quarterbacks at halftime. The Colts won that match in Jacksonville 44-17, and had put up 30 points by halftime. The Jaguars couldn’t find the endzone until the final 20 seconds of the game.

The Jaguars sit at 1-9 and have taken over as the worst NFL team in Florida. This is the perfect opponent for the Colts to host when they need a bounce back win.

Editor’s note: DVOA and DYAR stats provided by Football Outsiders. Plus/minus grades via Pro Football Focus. DYAR is a player with more total value while DVOA is value per play.

The Jaguars on Offense

The Jags do not have a good offense. DVOA has them as the worst in the NFL featuring the 32nd rated passing attack and 22nd on the ground. They are averaging just 15.8 points per game, 31st in the NFL.

PFF has them as just the third worst offense in the league. Of the three players receiving positive grades, two are offensive linemen and the third is college quarterback turned running back Denard Robinson with a +2.0 (the bulk of that grade stemming from his pass blocking abilities).

The Jaguars have trouble holding onto the ball as well. They’ve turned it over 22 times this season (an average of 2.2 per game). Quarterback Blake Bortles has throw 14 picks, and has had multiple interception games in five of the eight games he’s played.

Rookie wide receiver Allen Robinson was leading the team, but he’s now on IR. None of the team’s wide receivers have a positive grade, and Robinson was really just the lone player to not be as bad as everyone else.

The offense could get a boost from tight end Marcedes Lewis, who should be making his first start since Week Two after suffering a high ankle sprain.

Simply put, this isn’t the worst offense the Jaguars have ever seen, nor is it the worst in the league, but it is still pretty bad.

What This Means for the Colts on Defense

Expect the Colts defense to rebound in a big way. The schedule has been awfully favorable this season, and the next two weeks offer plenty of opportunities to get back on track.

The last meeting saw the pass rush show up (primarily due to blitzing and poor QB play) and this game shouldn’t be any different. Bortles is fairly mobile, but with complex attacks and a lack of weapons he won’t stand a chance.

Expect the Colts to stack up against the run in an effort to remedy the mistakes from the Jonas Gray incident. They are also expecting Art Jones to play, which should bolster the Colts run defense significantly.

The Jaguars on Defense

The Jags have the 28th ranked defense in terms of yardage and allowing teams to convert on 42-percent of third downs. DVOA has them with the 17th defense in the NFL, 16th against the pass and 19th versus the run.

That said, the Colts racked up over 500 yards on Jacksonville in the last meeting and were 8-for-14 on third down. They didn’t punt until the third quarter and scored on seven of their 10 drives.

PFF paints a picture of a team with the second worst team in the NFL defensively. The individual players have not been very effective, and its led to a defense that is giving up 28 points per game, 31st in the league.

The secondary has been the worst in the league against opponents top wide receivers. They are solid against tight ends and running backs in the passing game, but will get eaten up by slot receivers.

What This Means for the Colts on Offense

Fans should expect more of the same from the Colts offense, even with injuries to Ahmad Bradshaw and Dwayne Allen. T.Y. Hilton is going to feast against the Jags, especially after a rough week against the Patriots.

This would be a perfect game to get Donte Moncrief heavily involved in the offense. The Colts need another option downfield, and Hakeem Nicks clearly isn’t it.

The Colts will need to figure out the rushing attack as well. It wouldn’t be surprising to see some experimental play calling this week, especially once the Colts build a comfortable lead.