The Indianapolis Colts leave the comfortable confines of Lucas Oil Stadium this week to head for a more hostile environment. The Colts face the Pittsburgh Steelers in the late afternoon game on Sunday.
Road games are never easy in the NFL, but this one will provide a particular challenge. The Colts haven’t faced a quality offense on the road since Week 1 against the Broncos. Ben Roethlisberger and company have a very good offense, or at least one that has the potential to be very good.
They have struggled with consistency this season and while Pittsburgh sits are 4-3, it has won every other game. If that holds true, the Steelers are do for a loss on Sunday.
Editor’s note: DVOA and DYAR stats provided by Football Outsiders. Plus/minus grades via Pro Football Focus. DYAR is a player with more total value while DVOA is value per play.
The Steelers on Offense
The Steelers have gotten back to their roots a bit and can actually run the ball once again. Le’Veon Bell has been outstanding in his second season, and is the highest rated player on offense (+11.1) and is third in the NFL in DYAR.
The Steelers as a team are eighth and ninth in passing and rushing yards respectively. Overall, their offense ranks 12th per Football Outsiders with the 14th passing offense and sixth rushing.
The team is basically a three headed monster of Bell, wideout Antonio Brown, and Roethlisberger. The three are separated by just 1.5 points on PFF. Its so focused on those three that Bell is the team’s second leading receiver.
The offensive line might be eighth in run blocking, but they are 29th in pass protection. Roethlisberger has taken 21 sacks, which is partly a product of him holding the ball for far too long.
They’ve done a good job of taking care of the ball, and only have eight turnovers so far this season.
What it Means for the Colts Defense
The Steelers will want to run on early downs, so the Colts will have to continue their dominant performance from last week to slow down Bell. If they can force the Steelers into obvious passing downs, expect more blitzing from the Colts.
While Roethlisberger’s protection hasn’t been great, he has made a career out of improvisation. He’s basically Andrew Luck, but a bit slower. He won’t go down easy, so when players have a free shot, they have to wrap up and drop Big Ben hard.
Vontae Davis will have his hands full with Brown, who has a skill set similar to T.Y. Hilton‘s. Getting Arthur Jones back could be huge as well as he can help the rotation and improve both the pass rush and run defense.
The Steelers on Defense
This is not the Steelers defense of old. Now? They’re just old. They have the 26th overall defense and are 26th against the pass and 17th against the run, according to Football Outsiders.
The Steelers are giving up 23 points per game, but haven’t been able to put together consecutive performances. They were able to shut down Carolina on the road but then gave up 27 points and a game winning drive to Tampa Bay at home.
Dick LeBeau is a legend of a defensive coordinator, but its clear he’s lost his edge. It doesn’t help that the Steelers have had to cut more of their talented veterans due to cap issues. Luckily OLB Jason Worilds has come on and currently is the team’s best player with a +12.2 (although his numbers are skewed with a great game versus Houston that rated +8.7).
The Steelers rate in the bottom fourth of the league at rushing the passer. Defensive end Cameron Heyward leads the team with three sacks.
The Steelers secondary hasn’t been all that great this season, but they still have playmakers in Troy Polamalu and Ike Taylor. Cortez Allen has the best traditional stats in the secondary (two interceptions, 10 passes defended) but PFF rates him at -15.3 as he gambles too much and can be picked on.
What it Means for the Colts on Offense
There will be feasting. Expect Luck to continue his exceptional play this season and for Hilton to churn out more big plays. The Steelers linebackers are not very good in coverage, so Dwayne Allen and the running backs could have a big day in the passing game.
The Steelers have played well on third down, but its often they are giving up first downs early in opponents series. The Colts are playing extremely well on offense lately, aside from the few untimely turnovers by RBs, if the execution and turnovers are cleaned up, they will roll.