Colts at Panthers: What to Watch For

The Indianapolis Colts (3-4) are set to face the Carolina Panthers (6-0) on Monday Night Football. It is the fourth night game for the Colts this season already, but they’ve yet to live up to the hype this season.

At this point, the Colts are beyond desperate for a win against anyone, but especially for one against a non-AFC South opponent. The Panthers are trying to prove that they belong in the ranks of unbeatens, despite facing a fairly weak roster of opponents so far this season.

While the Colts have struggled, this week’s opponent isn’t nearly as fearsome as their record suggests. This is a classic trap game for the Panthers as they face a potentially undefeated Packers team next week (and even if they aren’t undefeated, still the Packers).

Here’s what fans should be on the lookout for:

• Better Luck. Overall, the Colts are not a flat out bad team. They are flawed, but the vast majority of those flaws start and end with Andrew Luck right now. The simple fact of the matter is that whatever the Colts do outside of Luck won’t matter if his bafflingly bad play continues. If he were to play at just an average level this season the Colts would likely be 6-1 at worst. Of all the problems on this team, we never thought QB play would be the biggest one heading into the season. The Panthers have a great pass defense, but with all of the Colts weapons you have to figure someone will get open. If he plays well, the Colts can come away with a win. But right now we have no reason to believe that he’s going to be at his best Monday night.
  • While it is hard to diagnose what is wrong with Luck, a few thoughts come to mind. Three years of bad protection has hurt his pocket awareness. Three years of mediocre defense has him pressing more often than not. The shoulder injury has him second guessing his arm. The turmoil in the front office is weighing on him and everyone else mentally. There is a lot of pressure on this team from the coach on down, and that would cause even the best players to falter.
• Run or Pass? While the Panthers are excellent against the pass, they’re 22nd against the run. The Colts will want to establish Frank Gore and Ahmad Bradshaw early to set up the play action and keep the Panthers honest. The problem is that the Panthers will likely stack the box and dare Luck to beat them, which it doesn’t look like he’ll be able to. The Colts couldn’t get anything going against the worst pass defense in the league last week, so what hope will they have against the second ranked pass defense in the NFL?
• Man Coverage. The Colts have excelled on defense when they can essentially force a team to be one-dimensional. Luckily, the Panthers have basically already done that to themselves. Outside of Greg Olsen, the receivers are not that talented and the Colts (with their corners finally healthy) can cover the receivers one-on-one, allowing them to blitz more often. With the heavy run focus on the Panthers, expect the Colts to cheat up to the line of scrimmage while leaving corners on an island to defend the receivers (and have someone spying Cam Newton all game).
• Stop the Run. For some unknown reason, the Colts have spent the past four years trying to build a tough physical team that can run the ball and stop the run. Come Monday night they can actually put that philosophy to the test as the Panthers have the best rushing attack in the country. Jonathan Stewart and Newton have been extremely efficient running the ball, especially off the read-option. The Colts need to be physical at the point of attack and stay disciplined when defending the run. Success on first and second down is critical and the Colts will try to force the Panthers into obvious passing situations, where they struggle.
• Scoring Efficiency. The Panthers are very good at finding points when they get into the red zone or orange zone (20 to 40 yard line). Their offense is essentially average but doesn’t leave a lot of points on the table when they get close to scoring opportunities. It seems obvious, but keeping the Panthers on their half of the field will be key, not only for limiting scoring opportunities but also to win the field position battle which has been a problem for the Colts all season.
• Overrated? The Panthers are probably the most flawed team of all the unbeatens left. That doesn’t mean they aren’t a very good team, but they’ve benefitted from a weak schedule. Their biggest challenge was a Drew Brees-less Saints team at home. The Panthers get to face the three worst divisions in football this season with the AFC South, NFC East, and NFC South (twice). That is the kind of schedule that earns you a top seed in the playoffs. The Colts have had plenty of flaws this season, but the Panthers are not some juggernaut that can’t be stopped.

The Colts could easily steal a win on Monday night, but it all depends on how Luck plays. He doesn’t need to be brilliant, just above average (which would be an improvement on the season). Unless Luck figures out how to come out of his slump, the Colts are leaving Carolina with another loss.