Colts vs Saints: What to Watch For

The Indianapolis Colts (3-3) host the New Orleans Saints (2-4). Both teams had arguably their best performances of the season, but produced different results.

The Saints beat up on a division rival when they hosted the Falcons on Thursday night football. They essentially forced five turnovers (three fumbles, a punt blocked for a touchdown, and a turnover on downs) to come away with a 10 point win. And all those fumbles did was stop potential scoring drives as the Saints didn’t turn any of them into points.

The Colts put up a valiant effort against the Patriots, but ultimately fell short. There is the possibility that they’re mentally exhausted from that game but they really need to find a way to win this Sunday. This isn’t exactly a “must win” but considering how difficult this stretch of the schedule is, the Saints appear to be the most winnable game.

Here’s what fans should be on the lookout for: 

• Bad Defense. On paper, the Saints have the worst defense in the NFL. They’re last in efficiency and 31st in yardage allowed. They do surprisingly well on third downs, but that’s because they are 31st in first downs allowed. The Colts, on the other hand, are not a whole lot better and their defensive numbers are bolstered by the AFC South. The Colts typically struggle against a competent pocket QB like Drew Brees. Both teams are going to be without key players on defense as well. Watch for both teams to move the ball with relative ease.
• The Awakening. It’s time for Andrew Luck redeem his season. He kicked off some rust against the Patriots, and a better game last week from him would have resulted in a win. The Colts need this win and the vast majority of the team’s struggles have stemmed from his poor play. If Luck can’t get it done against this terrible defense, the Colts are in real trouble going forward. Watch for Luck to put up big numbers on Sunday.
• Running Man. The Saints are bad at defending the run. They’re allowing 138 yards per game on the ground. Frank Gore has been itching to crack 100 yards in a game and is averaging 4.5 per carry. If ever it was going to happen, Sunday would be a great bet. Gore is still on a supposed pitch count for the season, and the team might rob his 100 yard game to keep him fresh for a supposed playoff run. This was more troubling before the team signed Ahmad Bradshaw who should see his carries go up this week. Watch for the Colts to run all over the Saints (and pretty much do whatever they want on offense).
• Stat Accumulation. The Saints have a very good offense…between the 20s. They’re great at moving the ball and rank near the top of the league. But when they get into the red zone, they’re average and struggle to find the endzone. Basically the Saints can’t finish drives (it certainly doesn’t help that they don’t have a run game). The dink-and-dunk their way down the field and either turn the ball over or get a field goal. This is the kind of offense that frustrates the Colts to no end. Watch the Saints produce long drives and the Colts struggle to get them off the field.
• More Snaps. Robert Mathis is supposed to be getting more snaps this week. That should be good news to the team’s pass rush as no one on the roster has more than one sack right now. The Colts need to use Mathis as an exclusive pass rusher. He’s decent in coverage, but considering how bad everyone else on the roster is at rushing QBs, Mathis has much more value in this department. At times it feels like DC Greg Manusky is trying to be too clever for his own good and fakes a rush with Mathis. Watch for Mathis to notch another sack on the season and attempt to make Brees uncomfortable.
• Shootout. The Colts haven’t really been in too many true shootouts during Luck’s career. They’ve fallen behind and need heroics to pull off a win (or been blown out) but don’t often trade scores with an opponent. That probably changes Sunday as both teams have good offenses (at least potentially) and fairly bad defenses. I give the Colts a very slight edge since their defense isn’t completely terrible. Watch for the Colts to pull off a win in a back-and-forth game.