The 2023-24 NFL season has come to a close, and that means the offseason has now officially begun. Starting this week, all teams (though most already have) will be shifting their attention to roster construction for next season. On February 20, NFL franchises can start handing out Franchise and Transition Tags. On February 27, the NFL combine kicks off at Lucas Oil Stadium. Then comes one of the most important offseason dates: March 13, a.k.a. the start of NFL free agency.
As they try to build on the momentum generated from this past year, the Colts have plenty of room for improvement and free agency remains one of the best ways to add talent. Indianapolis GM Chris Ballard has never been known for being a big spender, though that might change as the team expects to contend in a rapidly improving division and stacked conference. The Colts can afford to be aggressive this offseason, but only time will tell what the front office decides to do.
How much cap space do the Colts actually have?
Salary cap space in the NFL is always a tricky subject that can easily become very complicated. Here’s my attempt at a simple breakdown. First and foremost, the salary cap — the maximum amount any team can spend on their players annually — is expected to be more than $240 million in 2024. While the official number has not been released yet, it will certainly be a big jump from the 2023 cap of $224.8 million.
Next, we have to consider the Colts’ liabilities in 2024 which, in other words, is the money Indianapolis is already on the hook for. That includes about $181 million in active cap spending for the players that will return to the roster next season.
By the way, almost half of that is attributed to just five Colts: Quenton Nelson, DeForest Buckner, Braden Smith, Ryan Kelly, and Jonathan Taylor. Additionally, Indianapolis will have a dead cap hit (fully guaranteed money owed to players no longer on the team) of over $8 million due to the decision to release Shaquille Leonard.
We just went through a whole bunch of numbers but here comes the most important one. After subtracting their current liabilities from the total cap, the Colts will have an estimated $54.7 million in effective cap space in 2024, per Over the Cap. This is how much money Indianapolis can truly spend this offseason to improve the roster.
$54.7 million is definitely a large chunk of change. In fact, the Colts are projected to have the fourth-most effective cap space in the entire NFL. Indianapolis, however, has a long to-do list — including re-signing key players and addressing areas of need — that will quickly eat into their cap space.
State of the roster
Who's already signed through next season?
Indianapolis not only has tons of cap space this offseason but the team also returns the vast majority of an almost-playoff-worthy roster. Using the Colts’ final regular season depth chart from Week 18, just four of that game’s starters across offense and defense will be free agents. Everyone else is set to come back unless Indianapolis decides to make a change.
The returning group includes most of the team’s key difference-makers on both sides of the ball. Elite talents like Taylor, Nelson, Buckner, and Zaire Franklin will provide much-needed stability for this squad going into 2024.
Of course, there’s a reason the Colts are so far under the cap with only modest roster turnover. While other teams allocate upwards of $60 million to their franchise quarterbacks, Indianapolis’ Anthony Richardson is on a rookie contract, which gives the Colts at least three more years of financial flexibility. It also helps that Ballard has generally leaned on younger players (Josh Downs, Jaylon Jones, and Dayo Odeyingbo) and shrewd dealmaking (Samson Ebukam and E.J. Speed) to fill roster holes frugally.
Who could leave in free agency?
Although Indianapolis will bring back much of their 2023 squad, we can’t ignore the valuable players who they may lose in free agency. By my count, four of the Colts’ sure-fire would-be starters — Michael Pittman Jr., Grover Stewart, Kenny Moore II, and Julian Blackmon — are on expiring contracts.
That means Indianapolis might not retain their No. 1 wideout, a veteran run stuffer, and arguably the team's two best defensive backs. Whether or not Ballard can re-sign everyone, or anyone, in that group will be a pivotal offseason question for the franchise.
On top of that, there are also a number of other notable Colts who will hit free agency such as Gardner Minshew, Zack Moss, Tyquan Lewis, Taven Bryan, and Rigoberto Sanchez. If Indianapolis lets any of these players walk, it wouldn’t necessarily be the end of the world, but it would create yet another void that needs to be filled.
Colts free agency preview
Offense
All things considered, the Colts’ situation on offense is pretty solid. A unit that improved significantly last year already has its star quarterback and running back locked into long-term contracts. Indianapolis also returns every starter on the third-best offensive line of 2023, according to PFF.
The one glaring issue the Colts will have to tackle headfirst is at wide receiver. Pittman deserves to be paid like one of the best players in the league at a premium position. He will command a lucrative deal and Spotrac estimates his market value salary at $22.7 million per year. If Indianapolis cannot re-sign him, Ballard will have to look elsewhere to replace his team’s sole elite pass-catcher.
Beyond the Pittman question mark, the Colts’ offensive needs largely revolve around depth. Depending on who Indianapolis re-signs, the Colts may be in the market for a backup QB and RB as well as additional support on the offensive line or in the wide receiver and tight end rooms.
Defense
Defense was a problem area for Indianapolis last season and Ballard could get aggressive in free agency to turn the unit around. While the Colts allowed the fifth-most points in the NFL, they’re not exactly working with a blank slate. Ebukam, Buckner, Odeyingbo, and Kwity Paye are all big-time contributors on the defensive line. Franklin and Speed have the two linebacker spots locked down and the Colts have some potential long-term pieces in the secondary.
However, that’s where the positives stop. The Colts' offseason priorities on defense will likely involve (1) upgrading the secondary from top to bottom and (2) bolstering the front seven with more depth.
In 2023, the Indianapolis defensive backfield was in constant flux, partly due to injuries (Dallis Flowers, JuJu Brents, and Blackmon) and partly due to poor performance (Darrell Baker Jr. and Rodney Thomas II).
At minimum, the Colts will need to address key impending free agents Blackmon and Moore. But, realistically, the team could be open to anything, whether that means pursuing new starting cornerbacks and safeties or just bringing in fresh talent that can be a part of the rotation.
Up front, Indianapolis may look to add defensive tackle options, especially if either Stewart or Bryan departs, another linebacker to play behind the Frankin/Speed duo, and more pass rush production because, well, you always need more of that.