The Indianapolis Colts (6-5) will face the Tennessee Titans (4-7) at Nissan Stadium this Sunday in an important AFC South matchup. The Colts are trying to keep their playoff chances alive, while the Titans hope to stay undefeated at home with a fifth win.
Indianapolis enters Week 13 with some momentum after winning their last three games and rejoining the AFC playoff race. Head coach Shane Steichen has his team executing on both sides of the ball, giving the Colts a great opportunity to sweep Tennessee in 2023. The Titans' season has been more up-and-down as they are 4-0 at home and 0-7 on the road. The Tennessee defense is inconsistent and rookie quarterback Will Levis remains a developmental project.
This a big game for Indianapolis' postseason dreams so here's what the Colts need to do to leave Tennessee with a win.
3. Don't be afraid to let Gardner Minshew air it out against the Titans
The Colts offense has been humming this season — averaging the eighth-most points per game in the league — even after 2023 No. 4 overall pick Anthony Richardson suffered a season-ending injury when Indianapolis and Tennessee met in Week 5. However, Steichen and current starting quarterback Gardner Minshew have room to be more aggressive.
Indianapolis ranks near the bottom of the league in yards per pass attempt and Minshew has only averaged 6.6 in 2023 as his throws skew towards short, quick routes. While Minshew doesn't have an elite deep ball, the Colts should still focus more on the vertical passing game for two reasons.
First, the Tennessee secondary has been vulnerable at times this year as starting cornerback Kristian Fulton and rotational DB Elijah Molden have struggled when they've been targeted. Second, the greatest strength of the Titans’ defense might be their pass rush, which just decimated the Carolina Panthers to the tune of four sacks and nine tackles for loss. A good way to keep defenders off-balance and exploit pressure is by taking shots down the field to force the defense to play more conservatively.
2. Trust the run game even in the absence of Jonathan Taylor
The Indianapolis community got some bad news this week when the team announced that star running back Jonathan Taylor is expected to miss at least two-to-three weeks with a thumb injury sustained during the Week 12 matchup against Tampa Bay. However, Taylor's injury doesn't mean the Colts need to abandon the run game.
Backup running back Zack Moss has been excellent this season, rushing for a career-high 672 yards and five touchdowns on 141 carries. Moss was especially productive as the Colts' workhorse from Weeks 2 through 5 when Taylor was on injured reserve or ramping up to full health.
The Titans are solid against the run (only allowing 3.8 yards per carry in 2023) but Moss still ran all over them when these two teams played each other in early October. Moss dominated in that game, racking up 195 total yards and a pair of touchdowns as Tennessee had no answer for him. While Moss' involvement in the offense has diminished with Taylor's resurgence, he will have the opportunity to play a huge role for Indianapolis again this Sunday.
1. Focus on stopping Derrick Henry and force Will Levis to beat you
On offense, Tennessee’s identity remains rooted in the ground game. Former All-Pro running back Derrick Henry has the fourth-most rushing attempts and the fifth-most yards in the league and, simply put, the Titans tend to do well when Henry is running the ball effectively. Tennessee is 4-1 in 2023 when Henry runs for at least 76 yards, but 0-6 when he records 75 or less.
The last time Indianapolis faced Henry earlier this season, the defense limited him to only 43 yards on 13 carries. The defensive line actively clogged running lanes while the Colts' talented linebackers used their speed to explode through the gaps and initiate contact. Henry was held to 3.3 yards per carry and his longest run of the day was just eight yards. The Colts’ premier run-stoppers — DeForest Buckner, Zaire Franklin, and E.J. Speed — need to replicate that Week 5 performance to shut down Henry again.
If the Colts can stuff the Titans’ ground attack, head coach Mike Vrabel will have to lean on an iffy passing game that hasn’t been consistently good this season regardless of whether Ryan Tannehill or Will Levis is under center. Levis has had some flashy moments, but he has struggled immensely with accuracy and decision-making (he's completed only 59.9% of his attempts). While Levis’ arm talent always makes him dangerous, the Colts will like their chances if Tennessee is forced to ride the rookie passer to a victory rather than Henry.