The Indianapolis Colts have several players entering the final year of their contracts. Indy must decide which players deserve an extension.
The Indianapolis Colts have clearly entered a new phase when it comes to roster construction. In recent memory, general manager Chris Ballard has put together teams that have had contention potential, at least in terms of divisional contention, but now, the organization is in a rebuilding stage that first and foremost requires an established continuity at the quarterback position.
As far as the rest of the roster goes, there are several key players at pivotal positions who are set for new contracts in the near future (2024). We will take a look at each of those players and determine whether or not they 1. are worth retaining and 2. fit the overall timeline of this current Colts team.
The current state of the Colts dwells well for the 2024 free agents
Since 2020, the Colts’ front office has allocated a good chunk of its payroll toward the QB position. More specifically, they have been amongst the top of the league, at least top 10, in that time when it comes to cap dollars allocation for one position. This factoid alone shows that Ballard and Co. have hindered themselves in regards to roster construction as one of the 53 rostered is responsible for a majority of the team’s salary cap makeup.
This isn’t meant to rehash fresh wounds, but more so, to shed light as to why a rookie QB entering the equation provides much more than a soft reset at the league’s most important position. It shows that quarterbacks on their rookie deals are prime examples of how to maximize a team’s potential.
When you look at young QBs exploding into stardom amidst their rookie contracts (i.e., Joe Burrow and Jalen Hurts), you are almost presented with a direct correlation as to how, despite their youth and overall lack of experience, these teams are making trips to the Super Bowl. These teams are essentially gifted with the additional salary cap to work with due to their most expensive position being handicapped by rookie salaries.
This is still a piece on the Colts’ impending free agents of 2024, but I figured it was necessary to provide insight as to how the current state of the Colts’ roster, as well as its assumed next step in acquiring a quarterback in the upcoming draft, is set up to retain some of its more important players come negotiation time.
So, without further ado, let’s get into it.
Players that should be a top priority for Colts
These players are widely viewed as the most important contributors to the Colts’ offense, of both the last few seasons and the future outlook. They are a part of the same draft class and have been mainstays for the Colts’ offense as of late. This isn’t to say that the players who will be mentioned in the following slides aren’t valuable in their respective ways, but these two are deemed, in my opinion, as the most valuable, whether that be timeline-fitting or production-oriented.
Jonathan Taylor
Jonathan Taylor’s dilemma has certainly nothing to do with himself. As it stands in the modern-day NFL, the running back position is no longer regarded as one of the most important as history would tell us. This has resulted in a league-wide transition in terms of positional value for RBs.
Nowadays, running backs are only valued more than four positions, three of which are special-teams positions (K, P, & LS), with the fourth position being a role that has been essentially phased out of NFL schemes in 90% of scenarios (Fullback). The league average for running backs sits at $2,327,709. Although Jonathan Taylor is indeed an RB, he is seen to provide value as more than that, more so as an offensive weapon based on his capabilities as a football player.
Taylor’s estimated market value projects his contract to be worth $13M AAV. This would be among the highest in the league among the likes of Ezekiel Elliot, Dalvin Cook, Derrick Henry, and Nick Chubb. With a rookie QB set to provide an additional cap to work with, this very well could be the perfect situation for Taylor and the Colts. A three-year deal bodes well for all parties involved as you’re theoretically able to retain your offense’s most valuable player.
Michael Pittman Jr.
As an inverse scenario to that of Jonathan Taylor and the running-back position, Michael Pittman Jr. and wide receivers are generally valued as the fifth-most important position. Regardless of if a QB on a rookie deal is in play, wide receivers’ value will remain the same based on the fact that this position in question offers only elevation to any and every quarterback.
Pittman Jr.’s calculated market value sits at an estimated $18.4M average annual salary. This may seem steep, but with how WRs are valued, plus the fact the NFL’s salary cap is annually rising, this actually doesn’t seem too outlandish for a potential WR1 in the NFL.
You may personally believe Pittman Jr. is not a WR1, but to play devil’s advocate, he has only improved in his three seasons in Indy. Three seasons in which Pittman Jr. has provided a security blanket for each of the Colts’ 5 (!) QBs in that span. He has seen an increase in targets each year and has subsequently improved his reception totals as well as his catch rate.
Any rookie QB would be thrilled to have Pittman Jr. as their go-to guy, but coupled with Jonathan Taylor in the backfield? These prospective QBs should be screaming, “sign me up!”
Veterans the Colts may have to move on from
These three veterans have been vital members of the Colts in recent years. They’re a select list comprised of guys with NFL experience, as mainstays of the Colts or simply in the league as a whole. However, it may be a challenge for Indy to keep them moving forward.
Stephon Gilmore
Although he is the oldest of the bunch, Stephon Gilmore is the most productive NFL player on the current Colts roster. Even though he has only played for the Colts for one season, Gilmore has solidified himself as one of the best cornerbacks of all time throughout his career. Gilmore will be 33.5 years old when his contract is up, so a lucrative deal is assumed to be out of the equation. This past offseason alone brought uncertainties about Gilmore and if he’s still got some gas left in the tank. As he signed a two-year deal with Indy a year ago, he has since proved to be the top-tier corner that he’s known to be.
With that being said, Gilmore’s Super Bowl-winning aspirations are seemingly not in the equation as the Colts are now in an unforeseen rebuilding stage. As much as Colts fans appreciate his tenure in Indy, bringing him back after this upcoming season does not seem realistic as the timeline simply doesn’t line up.
Grover Stewart
Grover Stewart is both a fan favorite and an unsung hero amongst Colts fans everywhere. His production doesn’t always show up on the stat sheet, but his presence is certainly felt, especially in the run game. With DeForest Buckner lined up beside him on every play, he’s bound to produce, regardless, he is incredibly valuable to what the Colts do defensively.
Stewart’s current contract puts him as the 13th-most expensive DT in the league. Couple his estimated contract in 2024 to be the 11th highest with DeForest Buckner’s already expensive contract, it may come down to picking one of the two to move forward with.
If that were the case, I would suggest moving forward with Buckner, however, Stewart’s value is certainly under-appreciated in general, despite what his contract may suggest. Picking one of the two and allocating the remaining funds toward an edge rusher may be the formula for Indianapolis moving forward.
Kenny Moore II
Another fan-favorite is Kenny Moore II, this is another tough conversation to be had. Whether it be timeline-fitting or production-based, the retention of Moore II is an interesting topic. Moore II has been a mainstay for the Colts’ defense ever since he was picked up off waivers from the New England Patriots back in 2017. He has since blossomed into one of the better slot cornerbacks in the league.
As of recent, however, he has seen lingering injuries and a new scheme interrupt his journey. Since he became a Colt, and prior to last season, Moore II had missed only a handful of games in five seasons, while providing Swiss-army knife production in the meantime.
Since he was named a Pro-Bowler in the 2021 season, his consistent production has dropped off, but there are reasons for that. It’s not as simple as he, checked out, as many Colts fans like to proclaim. A new scheme, one in which he admitted that he wasn’t adjusting to well, isn’t an excuse for bad play. I am certainly not insinuating that is the case here, however, with different injuries and whatnot in the mix, I feel it’s not yet fair to deem Kenny Moore II as disinterested.
Zak Keefer of the Athletic has reported that there’s already a decent chance the Colts move on from Moore II this offseason, given he is a prime trade candidate if the Colts want to make a deal with the Bears to move up for their QB of the future. If Moore II does indeed play out his contract in Indy, dependent on if/how he responds in the upcoming season, as it stands, a team-friendly extension at that point may be the only course of action left.
Young DBs that earned a second contract with Colts
These eventual free agents are young and exciting players and both are members of the Colts’ defensive backfield (i.e., CB & S). Both have shown flashes to become stars in the league, but injuries and a lack of opportunity have prevented them from blossoming into said stardom.
Isaiah Rodgers Sr.
Isaiah Rodgers Sr. was once viewed as a special teams menace as his lightning speed provided a scoring threat as a returner, quite literally every time he touched the ball. Fast forward and now Rodgers Sr. has since had fans everywhere clamoring for him to be elevated to a starting role. His twitchiness and overall explosiveness create mismatches for opposing teams, despite his smaller frame (5-foot-10, 170 pounds). He was eventually elevated to the starting role this past season, where he started nine games but was still rotating with veteran Brandon Facyson.
Based on traits and flashes alone, Rodgers Sr. deserves any payday that’ll come his way. If the Colts don’t re-sign him after this season, I would chalk that up as an all-time blunder for general manager Chris Ballard, or whoever is in charge that time around.
Julian Blackmon
Julian Blackmon, who was fresh off an Achilles tear, came into the league as a true playmaker at the safety position. He became a true DROY candidate as he racked up clutch play after clutch play in his rookie campaign, and looked to be one of the better safeties in the league for years to come.
Unfortunately, injuries have remained a constant during his three NFL seasons, and have ultimately hindered his progression as an NFL player. Although, he did prove his versatility as a player this season as he stepped up for DC Gus Bradley when filling in for Kenny Moore II as the team’s slot cornerback.
Especially with uncertainties looming around teammate Kenny Moore II and his future in Indy, it may pay dividends to re-sign Blackmon on a team-friendly deal in the 2024 offseason.
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