After a season of torment, it’s time to look forward to how the Indianapolis Colts can manage to get the top pick in the 2023 NFL Draft.
A year ago, it would have been a wild thought to imagine a team heading into January with a 9-6 record pushing for the playoffs would be even close to the first overall pick the following year. But here the Indianapolis Colts are, in the top 10 of the draft boards for the 2023 NFL Draft.
The way Indy finishes up the season is going to really dictate what happens to the franchise next year, with a lot of different options on the line. Who will coach the team, be the general manager, and most importantly, be the next quarterback for the Indianapolis Colts?
Right now, the Colts are in a position to get one of the top quarterbacks in the draft, but they’d need to settle on QB3-5 on the draft board and hope that’s enough to entice a good coach to come to Indy. Even then, if Chris Ballard is the general manager, does he try to trade back or take a positional need like left tackle?
It’s a wild thought, but there is still room for the Colts to land the first overall pick in next year’s draft, which would put Indy in a position to select Ohio State’s C.J. Stroud and Alabama’s Bryce Young. The two quarterbacks are known as this year’s top quarterbacks in the draft.
Even so, this time two years ago, it was Trevor Lawrence and Justin Fields labeled as the top two, and Fields fell to being the fourth quarterback off the board. Now, it looks like the two were truly the top two in the draft.
The Colts cannot rely on that happening this year. That’s not a normal thing to happen, so they need to take the shots they can at obtaining the first overall pick. How does that happen, though? There are some bad teams out there and Indianapolis is currently sitting at pick No. 9, but just three games back from the top pick. Here’s what needs to happen for Indianapolis to be the first team on the board.
The bye week helps the Colts more than it hurts
Look, the team needs a break after getting brutalized against the Dallas Cowboys on national television. But the bye week is going to help the Colts in draft position, which will help Indianapolis down the road.
There are a few important matchups in the Week 14 slate that can get the Colts further up the draft board. Indianapolis will need to see big outings from the Broncos, Texans, Lions, and Panthers. There is not one single matchup that is going to be easy for those four teams. The Broncos host the Chiefs who are coming off a loss. The Texans head to Dallas who just had a big win on Sunday Night Football. The Lions host the Vikings and the Panthers head to Seattle.
This is not going to be a great week, but crazier things have happened. If these four teams can pull off upsets, this puts the Colts at the seventh pick in the draft.
Realistically, all four of these teams lose in Week 14, which doesn’t help the Colts, but that’s not why we are here. Let’s say they pull out the upset!
Heading to Minnesota in Week 15
This is already a tough matchup for the Colts in Week 15. I’m not worried about the Indianapolis cornerbacks covering Justin Jefferson, but I am worried that the offense will never score against the Vikings’ defense.
Indy will lose this game hands down and fall to 4-9-1 on the season, pushing their draft position a little more by themselves.
Key matchups in Week 15 for the Colts include the Texans vs Chiefs, Jaguars vs Cowboys, Broncos vs Cardinals, Saints vs Falcons, and Eagles vs Bears.
You may be asking why there is any kind of focus on the Saints needing to lose since the Eagles own their pick. This makes them a prime trade candidate for a team that wants to move up in the draft to get a quarterback. This goes for the Broncos as well. Both teams need to continue losing to help the Colts.
If the Texans, Jaguars, Broncos, Saints, and Bears can win these matchups, this would catapult the Colts up to the No. 4 overall pick in the draft.
Hosting the Chargers on Monday Night Football
With a primetime loss, the Colts could end the week with the first overall pick if the perfect storm happens. At this point in the draft, the only teams standing between the Colts at No. 4 and the first pick are the Texans, Saints, and Bears. One of which needs a quarterback, and the other two are in prime trade positioning (Eagles and Bears).
Another tall order here, the Texans head to Tenessee, where they were able to get a win on the road last season with a better Titans offense. The Bears host the Bills, who could easily beat or lose to the Bears. Lastly, the Saints head to the Browns where they could do the same thing as the Bears.
This is an achievable week for the perfect storm to happen and for the Colts to climb to the first overall pick.
Minor setback for an epic comeback
So there’s an issue here for the Colts, even with a loss to the New York Giants, the Colts will fall if the Texans lose to the Jaguars. What’s a true NFL season for the Colts if the Jaguars don’t spoil Indianapolis’ postseason/offseason plans?
Let’s just say, for now, the Texans lose to the Jaguars and the Colts lose another on the road. This puts both the Colts and Texans at 4-11-1 on the season, tied for the No. 1 pick in the NFL draft, leading to an epic Week 18 showdown between the two teams.
The rest of the league doesn’t quite matter at this point. Sitting behind the Colts are the Seahawks (via Broncos), Eagles (via Saints), Steelers, and Bears, who are all doing either fine or have their franchise QB. The Seahawks are a wildcard here if they plan to go QB in this draft, though.
The epic finale of the season lands the first overall pick
It seems like the Colts are just a few years removed when the Colts vs. Titans season finale was flexed to Sunday Night Football and the winner won the division, but the loser missed the playoffs.
Now, this season’s finale includes the loser getting the first overall pick and the winner getting the No. 5 pick. How is this game perceived by the teams and the fans? Do fans root for the rival? Do the teams try winning for their future employers or lose to help the franchise?
Is this enough intrigue to get this game pushed into primetime and call it the Tank Bowl? The losing team gets their franchise quarterback of the future. The winner (loser) potentially misses out on either C.J. Stroud or Bryce Young altogether as Seattle has the opportunity to draft the other.
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