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Still Hunting: Projecting the Sacks For Trent Cole

By Luke Schultheis

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Set to turn 33 years old in October, one has to wonder how many sacks can reasonably be expected from one of the newest Indianapolis Colts in Trent Cole next season. Nicknamed “The Hunter”, the 11-year veteran had previously spent his entire career with the Philadelphia Eagles, wreaking havoc on opposing quarterbacks.

If you ask Cole, he still has plenty of big game hunting left in him and is glad to be with the Colts. However, Cole is starting to enter the late stage of his career where pass rushers typically tend to start to fade. The highly regarded veteran is 48th on the NFL’s all-time career sack leaders with 85.5 career sacks, and it’s a fair question to ask just how many more he can reasonably expect to add to that total.

For the purpose of this projection, of the NFL’s all-time career sack leaders, we compiled a Top 25 list of the top sackmasters who actually enjoyed a 33 year old season:

What we discovered was the average sack total for these Top 25 sack leaders was 8.0 sacks, a fairly impressive mark. While some pass rushers like Buffalo Bills legend Bruce Smith didn’t lose a beat with 13.5 sacks in their 33-year old campaign, others like former Colts great, then Charger Dwight Freeney clearly struggled with 0.5 sacks.

Cole came up just short of that total with 6.5 sacks last year and is another year older, but he’s just one season removed from an 8.0 sack season in 2006 with the Eagles. In my opinion, 8.0 sacks seems like a fairly reasonable projection for Cole.

Here’s why:

1. While Cole’s 6.5 sacks aren’t exactly an imposing total (although they would’ve tied Jonathan Newsome for the Colts team-high), that number is a bit misleading.

According to ProFootballFocus (subscription), Cole had a +11.3 pass rush grade last season, which placed him as the 12th best 3-4 outside linebacker in getting to the quarterback. The veteran may not be quite the same player he once was in his prime, but he still can be highly productive if last year is any indication.

2. There also may be more sacks to go around. Yes, Robert Mathis is coming back, but it’s not only unclear when Mathis will be returning, but also what to expect coming off his torn Achilles injury. With the Eagles last season, Cole had to battle the likes of Connor Barwin (14.5 sacks) and Vinny Curry (9 sacks) for sacks, but may face lesser competition when it comes to getting to the quarterback with the Colts.

So yes, Cole appears to still be pass rushing at a high level, and even at 33 years old, 8 sacks is likely a reasonable benchmark for the recently added veteran. That’s not saying he can’t reach double-digit sacks or even fall short of that mark, but 8 sacks seems like a sensible projection at this point.

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